DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
Gyrocopter
KJ · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 9 games
Infinity Esports
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Rubick
Genek · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Disruptor
Mjz · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 644 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
379 picks · 612 bans
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 777 bans
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
344 picks · 402 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:33
Heroic 73%Infinity Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidK1
LinaPiPi
Dragon Knight4nalog
Drow RangerParker
Death ProphetDavai
DawnbreakerOscar
GyrocopterKJ
TechiesDemon
Nyx AssassinScofield
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Heroic 71%Infinity Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverK1
LeshracPiPi
Pangolier4nalog
Phantom AssassinParker
Primal BeastDavai
BrewmasterOscar
EnchantressKJ
TechiesDemon
TinyScofield
Dark WillowYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 85%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2