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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%

Lava

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
50%
Sven
Sven
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
555k · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 592 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 405 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 471 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
294 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 339 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 787 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
Heroic 75%Lava 25%
The model gave 75% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
55% · 49 games52% · 236 games
Dark WillowPamplona
Dark Willow
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
42% · 54 games54% · 229 games
Crystal Maiden555k
Crystal Maiden
Phoenix
PhoenixDavai
45% · 137 games
Batrider
BatriderScofield
47% · 196 games
Omniknight
OmniknightKJ
46% · 29 games
Game 2prediction correct26:28
Heroic 76%Lava 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
54% · 98 games43% · 221 game
SnapfirePamplona
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
54% · 113 games48% · 300 games
Tusk555k
Tusk
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
56% · 106 games
Muerta
MuertaScofield
50% · 74 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
59% · 130 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 89%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2