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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
72%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
72%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 17 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 642 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 443 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 550 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 183 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
289 picks · 178 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:27
Heroic 55%LGD Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverK1
54% · 246 games40% · 33 games
Bloodseekershiro
Bloodseeker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend4nalog
55% · 44 games42% · 75 games
RazorEcho
Razor
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
45% · 41 game44% · 125 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
57% · 155 games49% · 152 games
Rubicky`
Rubick
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
43% · 21 game58% · 122 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct36:15
Heroic 54%LGD Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
50% · 166 games42% · 89 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDavai
53% · 142 games36% · 68 games
Dawnbreakerniu
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batrider4nalog
52% · 162 games46% · 146 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
53% · 160 games52% · 197 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
58% · 147 games53% · 277 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2