ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LFLooking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 19 games
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
Doomsignature
Sacred · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
464 picks · 624 bans
Clockwerk
394 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 484 bans
Luna
336 picks · 420 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 613 bans
Dark Willow
311 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 363 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:34
Heroic 60%Looking for Org 40%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingParker
LinaPakazs
Earth Spirit4nalog
EarthshakerDarkMago
DoomDavai
DawnbreakerSacred
BatriderKJ
Shadow DemonMatthew
TuskScofield
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction missed
Heroic 66%Looking for Org 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Looking for Org.
Game 3prediction correct
Heroic 66%Looking for Org 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3