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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
56%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 43 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 34 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 31 game
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 24 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 626 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 363 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 428 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 407 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 514 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 113 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:2
Heroic 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistK1
56% · 77 games54% · 93 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
61% · 18 games49% · 139 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDavai
54% · 166 games51% · 90 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
43% · 209 games53% · 180 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
44% · 186 games44% · 154 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct28:22
Heroic 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
54% · 122 games36% · 81 game
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Puck
Puck4nalog
58% · 111 games53% · 332 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
50% · 222 games50% · 81 game
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
42% · 117 games55% · 172 games
WeaverNARMAN
Weaver
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKJ
49% · 141 game49% · 47 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 59%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2