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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 13 games
46%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 30 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 24 games
79%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 298 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
522 picks · 525 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1079 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 185 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 587 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 258 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:32
Heroic 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYuma
45% · 120 games51% · 138 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Mars
MarsDavai
45% · 131 game47% · 42 games
BroodmotherBOOM
Broodmother
Earthshaker
EarthshakerWisper
50% · 112 games49% · 287 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Chen
ChenKJ
63% · 68 games52% · 57 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
47% · 141 game58% · 48 games
Keeper of the LightSeleri
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1