BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 15 games
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
624 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
Puck
399 picks · 1115 bans
Hoodwink
379 picks · 199 bans
Mars
358 picks · 613 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Heroic 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
Broodmothergotthejuice
UnderlordDavai
Nature's ProphetNiku
LeshracWisper
Slardarpma
ClockwerkScofield
PudgeZayac
AbaddonKJ
DazzleRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 54%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1