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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 16 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
79%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 16 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
748 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
541 picks · 292 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1183 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 262 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 479 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 713 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
385 picks · 248 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Heroic 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYuma
54% · 220 games46% · 181 game
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
51% · 109 games48% · 209 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarDavai
58% · 129 games45% · 219 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
52% · 255 games48% · 189 games
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
45% · 181 game55% · 96 games
Naga SirenRiddys
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed20:24
Heroic 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoYuma
43% · 16 games54% · 184 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Venomancer
VenomancerWisper
53% · 31 game56% · 83 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
46% · 198 games51% · 218 games
Marspma
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
50% · 327 games51% · 146 games
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskScofield
48% · 354 games46% · 295 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2