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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 10 games
80%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 17 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 782 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 715 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 949 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 353 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 594 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
440 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
423 picks · 204 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:47
Heroic 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:12:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
52% · 143 games51% · 140 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerK1
48% · 202 games52% · 212 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 176 games62% · 46 games
PudgeTimado
Pudge
Pugna
PugnaKJ
50% · 231 game48% · 176 games
DisruptorCeb
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskScofield
42% · 166 games46% · 344 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed39:31
Heroic 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
47% · 198 games50% · 133 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
63% · 108 games46% · 209 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
50% · 198 games43% · 99 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterScofield
54% · 142 games54% · 85 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
52% · 161 game42% · 281 game
TinyAri
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct16:34
Heroic 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
51% · 269 games47% · 288 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
49% · 192 games46% · 295 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
61% · 115 games52% · 226 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
51% · 185 games48% · 235 games
EnchantressCeb
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickScofield
50% · 532 games46% · 249 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3