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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 27 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 18 games
83%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
56%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 21 game
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 19 games
68%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 934 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 426 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 947 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 655 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total83% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:6
Heroic 32%OG 68%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuma
50% · 71 game57% · 124 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsWisper
48% · 276 games46% · 459 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiLung
52% · 393 games49% · 190 games
AxeForce
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
45% · 220 games56% · 191 game
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
53% · 153 games44% · 149 games
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 83%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1