Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
O+Orrai + 4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
Orrai + 4
Axeoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 683 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 607 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 752 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
346 picks · 966 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Orrai + 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Heroic 89%Orrai + 4 11%
The model gave 89% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Game 2prediction correct
Heroic 89%Orrai + 4 11%
The model gave 89% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 89%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2