FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Tusk
Scofield · 20 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
4nalog · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 53 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 44 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 42 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 36 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 35 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
677 picks · 325 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 582 bans
Hoodwink
437 picks · 228 bans
Puck
409 picks · 1162 bans
Mars
381 picks · 650 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 257 bans
Pugna
354 picks · 401 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 933 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:23
Heroic 68%Runa Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
Sand KingWisper
Weavernesfeer
Dark SeerDavai
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
HoodwinkScofield
Naga SirenHduo
WarlockKJ
Dark Willowqueezy
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Heroic 68%Runa Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYuma
Svennesfeer
Dark SeerDavai
Pucknicky`cool
Sand KingWisper
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Nyx AssassinScofield
ChenHduo
HoodwinkKJ
Tuskqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 81%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2