DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 3:2series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 3:2
South America Rejectsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 36 games
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
South America Rejects
Phoenix
Elmisho · 4 games
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
649 picks · 684 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 448 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 420 bans
Phoenix
446 picks · 441 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 287 bans
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1112 bans
Puck
406 picks · 869 bans
Hoodwink
403 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Heroic 69%South America Rejects 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
Sand KingDarkMago
BeastmasterWisper
Templar AssassinWits
BristlebackTaiLung
DawnbreakerFrank
HoodwinkThiolicor
RingmasterElmisho
Shadow DemonKJ
Nyx AssassinScofield
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Heroic 70%South America Rejects 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawWisper
Storm SpiritDarkMago
PangolierTaiLung
BeastmasterWits
AlchemistYuma
BristlebackFrank
HoodwinkThiolicor
PhoenixElmisho
EnchantressKJ
ClockwerkScofield
Game 3prediction missed11:38
Heroic 69%South America Rejects 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
KunkkaDarkMago
EnigmaWisper
WindrangerWits
Nature's ProphetTaiLung
ViperFrank
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Nyx AssassinScofield
PhoenixKJ
Crystal MaidenElmisho
Game 4prediction missed34:42
Heroic 68%South America Rejects 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 1:09:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYuma
KunkkaDarkMago
TimbersawWisper
Monkey KingWits
PangolierTaiLung
AlchemistFrank
SnapfireKJ
JakiroElmisho
RubickThiolicor
GrimstrokeScofield
Game 5prediction correct24:15
Heroic 69%South America Rejects 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:06:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
ViperDarkMago
PuckTaiLung
LifestealerWits
MarsWisper
EnchantressElmisho
PhoenixKJ
Legion CommanderFrank
Shadow DemonThiolicor
WindrangerScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 83%
Series resultHeroic 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5