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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 30 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 25 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 18 games
72%

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 26 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mikoto · 22 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
486 picks · 525 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 471 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
360 picks · 203 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 361 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
349 picks · 739 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 520 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
320 picks · 202 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
317 picks · 509 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:52
Heroic 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
43% · 210 games54% · 282 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
46% · 157 games53% · 85 games
LeshracMikoto
Leshrac
Tiny
Tiny4nalog
46% · 365 games47% · 553 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
50% · 187 games52% · 98 games
AxeJhocam
Axe
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
51% · 196 games58% · 97 games
BaneKuku
Bane
Game 2prediction missed19:33
Heroic 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWisper
55% · 301 game45% · 201 game
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
54% · 287 games44% · 417 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
51% · 288 games41% · 195 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
56% · 236 games48% · 247 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Bane
BaneKJ
57% · 66 games50% · 118 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 50%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2