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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 34 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 25 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 15 games
40%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 31 game
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 734 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 567 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 350 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 766 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 560 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:22
Heroic 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
51% · 113 games51% · 161 game
RazormiCKe
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
44% · 142 games40% · 201 game
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
53% · 164 games57% · 85 games
SlardarNisha
Slardar
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
47% · 106 games50% · 59 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Io
IoKJ
51% · 72 games57% · 91 game
BaneiNSaNiA
Bane
Game 2prediction correct4:19
Heroic 30%Team Liquid 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 16:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingK1
46% · 85 games55% · 161 game
Primal BeastNisha
Primal Beast
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
55% · 62 games49% · 60 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaDavai
46% · 205 games53% · 161 game
Doom33
Doom
Mirana
MiranaKJ
49% · 186 games50% · 173 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
45% · 185 games52% · 168 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2