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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
81%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuma · 14 games
64%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 22 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
636 picks · 316 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 556 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1134 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 618 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 273 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 393 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
Heroic 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
54% · 227 games51% · 178 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Puck
PuckWisper
57% · 254 games43% · 76 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
51% · 61 game43% · 200 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
57% · 214 games41% · 251 game
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaKJ
53% · 218 games49% · 269 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct47:42
Heroic 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:10:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuma
46% · 64 games50% · 228 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsWisper
46% · 234 games51% · 108 games
UndyingAce
Undying
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
58% · 389 games50% · 302 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
44% · 268 games48% · 205 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Bane
BaneKJ
53% · 182 games52% · 294 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 52%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2