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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
56%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
37%
Tiny
Tiny
Nisha · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 328 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 588 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 248 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 152 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
337 picks · 876 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total53% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:34
Heroic 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:05:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWisper
48% · 309 games51% · 169 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Kez
KezYuma
little data52% · 226 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
48% · 386 games50% · 267 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaKJ
49% · 276 games49% · 102 games
WindrangerBoxi
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
57% · 99 games46% · 306 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct47:24
Heroic 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
52% · 185 games47% · 191 game
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Kez
KezYuma
65% · 12 games40% · 76 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Viper
ViperDavai
54% · 35 games49% · 223 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskScofield
53% · 462 games50% · 173 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Bane
BaneKJ
56% · 157 games43% · 188 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed27:32
Heroic 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
51% · 192 games46% · 104 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Kez
KezYuma
60% · 12 games42% · 71 game
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
64% · 159 games37% · 110 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarKJ
60% · 76 games42% · 105 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
57% · 95 games44% · 144 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3