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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 23 games
61%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 18 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 738 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 800 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 479 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 380 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 539 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
436 picks · 1047 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 946 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
Heroic 45%Team Tidebound 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet4nalog
45% · 70 games53% · 114 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Ursa
UrsaYuma
43% · 105 games57% · 173 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordWisper
41% · 96 games61% · 23 games
DazzleNothingToSay
Dazzle
Muerta
MuertaScofield
49% · 172 games57% · 148 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
46% · 264 games50% · 249 games
TuskpLAnet
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:32
Heroic 44%Team Tidebound 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuma
49% · 94 games49% · 115 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
47% · 287 games50% · 386 games
PhoenixFaith_bian
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroScofield
45% · 144 games52% · 176 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
51% · 94 games55% · 149 games
MarcipLAnet
Marci
Muerta
MuertaKJ
53% · 288 games50% · 81 game
Warlocky`
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 59%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2