FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 19 games
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
TA2000 · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 13 games
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 10 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 10 games
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
661 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
563 picks · 574 bans
Hoodwink
421 picks · 224 bans
Puck
408 picks · 1153 bans
Mars
380 picks · 637 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 260 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Heroic 60%Team Yandex 40%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYuma
TerrorbladeWatson
BeastmasterWisper
LycanNoticed
MarsDavai
PangolierChira JUNIOR
SnapfireScofield
HoodwinkSaksa
BaneKJ
GyrocopterMalady
Game 2prediction missed18:42
Heroic 62%Team Yandex 38%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYuma
SvenWatson
Storm SpiritWisper
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
BeastmasterDavai
AxeNoticed
TuskScofield
SnapfireSaksa
HoodwinkKJ
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 68%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2