DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTeamCompromisoloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 22 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
TeamCompromiso
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 8 games
Muertasignature
Genek · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Adrx · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Adrx · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 791 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 330 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 710 bans
Phantom Assassin
414 picks · 744 bans
Clockwerk
412 picks · 403 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 895 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 1063 bans
Pangolier
386 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:26
Heroic 70%TeamCompromiso 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 52:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
TerrorbladeDaaD-
BristlebackWisper
Dark SeerAdrx
Timbersaw4nalog
WarlockPanda
HoodwinkMatthew
ClockwerkGenek
Crystal MaidenKJ
Game 2prediction correct28:23
Heroic 70%TeamCompromiso 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
SvenDaaD-
EnigmaWisper
UnderlordAdrx
Primal Beast4nalog
WindrangerGenek
Shadow ShamanMatthew
JakiroPanda
RingmasterKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 82%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2