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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 10 games
40%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 30 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 21 game
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 17 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 14 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 11 games
91%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Whitemon · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 764 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 907 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 566 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
410 picks · 186 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
399 picks · 194 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:34
Heroic 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
50% · 208 games46% · 206 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
45% · 297 games62% · 22 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaDavai
49% · 138 games48% · 207 games
Dragon KnightTobi
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
47% · 159 games57% · 110 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterScofield
56% · 142 games48% · 399 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed23:9
Heroic 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
46% · 78 games54% · 34 games
MeepoPure~
Meepo
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
46% · 81 game53% · 80 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDavai
57% · 69 games60% · 19 games
OmniknightTopson
Omniknight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterScofield
54% · 93 games52% · 50 games
SlardarTobi
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
41% · 179 games49% · 317 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed36:46
Heroic 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerK1
58% · 33 games44% · 204 games
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
46% · 166 games50% · 17 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
50% · 199 games59% · 26 games
OmniknightTobi
Omniknight
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKJ
59% · 143 games48% · 229 games
Disruptor9Class
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskScofield
49% · 110 games48% · 175 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3