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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
4nalog · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
60%

Vici Gaming

Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Dy · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 6 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 585 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
446 picks · 228 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1162 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 654 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 253 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
353 picks · 930 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
Heroic 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:15:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoYuma
38% · 10 games53% · 286 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanWisper
54% · 163 games49% · 146 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
51% · 333 games49% · 281 game
PuckXm
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
44% · 147 games48% · 171 game
DisruptorpLAnet
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskScofield
50% · 441 game53% · 210 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed11:39
Heroic 69%Vici Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
47% · 348 games45% · 402 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaYuma
49% · 161 game48% · 259 games
MarsWs
Mars
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
56% · 273 games55% · 269 games
Sand KingXm
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroScofield
45% · 312 games45% · 198 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerKJ
51% · 178 games58% · 144 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 3prediction correct32:9
Heroic 69%Vici Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
50% · 357 games50% · 322 games
PuckXm
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
49% · 350 games49% · 386 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
53% · 169 games42% · 107 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
51% · 80 games52% · 115 games
Naga SirenDy
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneKJ
54% · 193 games49% · 219 games
DisruptorpLAnet
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 83%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3