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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 35 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
29%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 22 games
59%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
52%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 22 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Abed · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 403 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
445 picks · 495 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
432 picks · 213 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1036 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 879 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
Heroic 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaiLung
52% · 121 game43% · 301 game
TinyTimado
Tiny
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
54% · 129 games52% · 134 games
Sand KingAbed
Sand King
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
47% · 261 game54% · 239 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Zeus
ZeusKJ
46% · 12 games44% · 182 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
46% · 378 games66% · 45 games
GrimstrokeHellscream
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Heroic 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderWisper
49% · 368 games44% · 341 game
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyYuma
45% · 527 games49% · 273 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingTaiLung
56% · 284 games53% · 431 game
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThiolicor
55% · 103 games54% · 70 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickKJ
52% · 175 games45% · 342 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 70%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2