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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 26 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 13 games
46%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 12 games
83%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 668 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 177 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 705 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 622 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 51%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:28
Heroic 27%Xtreme Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 55:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
50% · 119 games49% · 187 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4nalog
49% · 224 games52% · 25 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
50% · 30 games48% · 147 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
41% · 175 games55% · 226 games
BatriderXinQ
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
49% · 131 game60% · 94 games
ChenDy
Chen
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Heroic 28%Xtreme Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Heroic in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerK1
52% · 49 games53% · 25 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
50% · 157 games53% · 206 games
SvenAme
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
48% · 212 games47% · 214 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
46% · 175 games50% · 122 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Rubick
RubickScofield
50% · 290 games54% · 316 games
BatriderDy
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2