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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 31 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 13 games
77%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 23 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
424 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 733 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:34
Heroic 33%Xtreme Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerK1
42% · 19 games49% · 159 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
50% · 139 games52% · 177 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
48% · 198 games52% · 197 games
Faceless VoidXm
Faceless Void
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
49% · 105 games47% · 58 games
Earth SpiritXinQ
Earth Spirit
Tiny
TinyScofield
53% · 155 games54% · 25 games
VenomancerDy
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 79%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1