BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yakult Brotherswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Tusk
Scofield · 18 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 13 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
570 picks · 288 bans
Disruptor
508 picks · 514 bans
Puck
380 picks · 1048 bans
Pugna
340 picks · 388 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 171 bans
Warlock
335 picks · 156 bans
Mars
334 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:42
Heroic 63%Yakult Brothers 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYuma
InvokerEmo
Queen of PainWisper
Tidehunterzeal
BeastmasterDavai
Ursaflyfly
SnapfireKJ
JakiroPoloson
TuskScofield
DisruptorBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 73%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1