Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAzimutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
No games played over 6 months.
Azimut
Centaur Warrunner
LastHero- · 1 game
Mirana
so bad · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
pio65 · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
HappyDyurara · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Yellow Flash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
446 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
424 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 701 bans
Mars
348 picks · 612 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 310 bans
Grimstroke
296 picks · 259 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 185 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 66%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect