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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 11 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
56%

PSG Quest

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 15 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 12 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Eixn · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 458 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 685 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 281 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 578 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 811 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 535 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 628 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:33
HF 61%PSG Quest 39%
The model gave 61% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 42:29.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
HF 61%PSG Quest 39%
The model gave 61% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 32:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 61%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2