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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
X3win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
477 picks · 666 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 502 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
454 picks · 277 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
430 picks · 577 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
380 picks · 444 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 640 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 564 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
349 picks · 823 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
HF 44%X3 56%
The model gave 56% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 38:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 56%
Series resultX3 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1