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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techies
weebian · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
13%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
SOhY · 7 games
29%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
SOhY · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
50%

X3

Tiny
Tiny
alone · 31 game
48%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 26 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
alone · 25 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
48%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 21 game
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
47%
Lina
Linaoften banned
nesfeer · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
658 picks · 424 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
571 picks · 541 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
469 picks · 537 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 386 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
377 picks · 207 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
339 picks · 515 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 219 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% X3
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total73% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
HF 37%X3 63%
The model gave 63% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkxannii
52% · 79 games54% · 286 games
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomActor
46% · 178 games49% · 32 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Death Prophet
Death Propheterase
47% · 315 games54% · 211 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaSOhY
51% · 232 games45% · 460 games
Snapfirealone
Snapfire
Tiny
Tinyweebian
47% · 517 games54% · 332 games
Treant Protectordark
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed61:30
HF 35%X3 65%
The model gave 65% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 1:00:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperxannii
45% · 134 games52% · 59 games
Spectrenesfeer
Spectre
Batrider
Batridererase
45% · 280 games54% · 224 games
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireActor
44% · 500 games48% · 323 games
Death ProphetShergarat
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
Clockwerkweebian
53% · 418 games51% · 442 games
Rubickdark
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSOhY
53% · 384 games53% · 668 games
Tinyalone
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed35:17
HF 39%X3 61%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetActor
54% · 266 games45% · 78 games
LycanShergarat
Lycan
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerxannii
54% · 180 games46% · 96 games
Chaos Knightnesfeer
Chaos Knight
Batrider
Batridererase
49% · 245 games46% · 306 games
Death ProphetNattyNarwhal
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSOhY
54% · 295 games47% · 425 games
Tinyalone
Tiny
Riki
Rikiweebian
57% · 115 games49% · 196 games
Miranadark
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 73%
Series resultHF 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3