Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Nature's Prophet
Xibbe · 3 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
165 picks · 371 bans
Mars
161 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
141 picks · 206 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Nyx Assassin
110 picks · 369 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 197 bans
Rubick
103 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
High Coast Esports 24%Alliance 76%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:37.
Game 2prediction correct
High Coast Esports 24%Alliance 76%
The model gave 76% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 76%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2