Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Nigma Galaxy
Bloodseekersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 6 games
Puckoften banned
w33 · 5 games
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 3 games
Earthshaker
GH · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
w33 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 605 bans
Void Spirit
276 picks · 346 bans
Mars
239 picks · 422 bans
Earth Spirit
225 picks · 179 bans
Keeper of the Light
194 picks · 366 bans
Rubick
193 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 595 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:36
High Coast Esports 41%Nigma Galaxy 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 53:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaCharlie
WeaverMiracle-
Death ProphetSupream^
VenomancerMinD_ContRoL
EnigmaChessie
Void Spiritw33
Spirit BreakerEra
IoGH
Shadow DemonXibbe
EarthshakerKuroKy
Game 2prediction correct21:43
High Coast Esports 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCharlie
Lifestealerw33
ViperSupream^
Void SpiritMiracle-
PangolierChessie
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dark WillowEra
Earth SpiritGH
Shadow DemonXibbe
Monkey KingKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2