EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportswin 2:1series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
388 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
362 picks · 517 bans
Mars
314 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 496 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 157 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 517 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:25
High Coast Esports 28%Winstrike Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 45:04.
Game 2prediction correct12:5
High Coast Esports 28%Winstrike Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 30:20.
Game 3prediction missed14:23
High Coast Esports 28%Winstrike Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 72%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3