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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hippomaniacs

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%

Ghost frogs

Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 9 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
j4 · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tobi · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Tobi · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 1013 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 598 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 183 bans
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
332 picks · 522 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
322 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 288 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Ghost frogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:23
Hippomaniacs 12%Ghost frogs 88%
The model gave 88% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 25:46.
Game 2prediction correct5:29
Hippomaniacs 12%Ghost frogs 88%
The model gave 88% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 23:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 88%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2