Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacswin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Meta4Proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
205 picks · 448 bans
Mars
182 picks · 338 bans
Void Spirit
179 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
141 picks · 235 bans
Nyx Assassin
132 picks · 448 bans
Rubick
126 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Meta4Pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hippomaniacs 37%Meta4Pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Meta4Pro — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs.
Model check result
Model favoriteMeta4Pro · 63%
Series resultHippomaniacs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1