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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Recast Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hippomaniacs

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%

Recast Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
LastHero- · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Alexxo · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alexxo · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
5up · 2 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Koma` · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 668 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
315 picks · 382 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 463 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
244 picks · 204 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
216 picks · 117 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
213 picks · 319 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 628 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 243 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Recast Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Hippomaniacs 21%Recast Gaming 79%
The model gave 79% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 21:51.
Game 2prediction correct27:41
Hippomaniacs 21%Recast Gaming 79%
The model gave 79% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 36:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteRecast Gaming · 79%
Series resultRecast Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2