Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 7 games
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 6 games
Rubick
dnz · 5 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Mirana
dnz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
165 picks · 368 bans
Mars
161 picks · 291 bans
Earth Spirit
149 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
140 picks · 204 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Nyx Assassin
110 picks · 369 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 197 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
Hippomaniacs 23%Spider Pigzs 77%
The model gave 77% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 25:26.
Game 2prediction missed40:39
Hippomaniacs 23%Spider Pigzs 77%
The model gave 77% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 46:59.
Game 3prediction correct27:46
Hippomaniacs 23%Spider Pigzs 77%
The model gave 77% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 45:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 77%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3