Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Brewmastersignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
Linasignature
No!ob · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 6 games
Rubick
dnz · 6 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Mirana
dnz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
168 picks · 386 bans
Mars
164 picks · 302 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
146 picks · 212 bans
Phoenix
129 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
112 picks · 200 bans
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
106 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Hippomaniacs 20%Spider Pigzs 80%
The model gave 80% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 28:18.
Game 2prediction correct27:52
Hippomaniacs 20%Spider Pigzs 80%
The model gave 80% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 52:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 80%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2