Hokori vs AllStars — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Hokoriloss 0:2

series probability

78%22%

probability at match start · final 0:2

AllStarswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Batrideroften banned

Genek · 10 games

50%

Clockwerk

Gardick · 9 games

44%

Muerta

Genek · 9 games

33%

Morphlingoften banned

Lumière · 8 games

38%

Ogre Magi

Gardick · 7 games

57%

Beastmasteroften banned

Vitaly · 6 games

33%

Bristlebacksignature

Sacred · 6 games

67%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Lumière · 6 games

17%

AllStars

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

512 picks · 709 bans

48%

Phoenix

425 picks · 695 bans

52%

Muerta

422 picks · 311 bans

52%

Clockwerk

409 picks · 399 bans

52%

Phantom Assassin

377 picks · 633 bans

52%

Bristleback

376 picks · 864 bans

58%

Magnus

375 picks · 992 bans

58%

Pangolier

364 picks · 501 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% AllStars

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total78% Hokori

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed32:38

Hokori 64%AllStars 36%

The model gave 64% on Hokori — the game was taken by AllStars in 47:01.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo