Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
363 picks · 536 bans
Bane
327 picks · 247 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
310 picks · 683 bans
Monkey King
264 picks · 755 bans
Tidehunter
247 picks · 401 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Hokori 43%beastcoast 57%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 22:28.
Game 2prediction correct19:50
Hokori 43%beastcoast 57%
The model gave 57% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:01.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 57%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2