Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Crewmates
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Ogre Magi
5 picks · 0 bans
Void Spirit
5 picks · 7 bans
Earth Spirit
4 picks · 3 bans
Mirana
4 picks · 4 bans
Tiny
4 picks · 2 bans
Vengeful Spirit
4 picks · 3 bans
Brewmaster
3 picks · 2 bans
Death Prophet
3 picks · 1 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Crewmates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Hokori 45%Crewmates 55%
The model gave 55% on Crewmates — the game was taken by Crewmates in 31:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrewmates · 55%
Series resultHokori 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1