Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Incubus Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Incubus Club
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Pangolier
mini-` · 2 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Clockwerk
Nuages · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Benny · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
64 picks · 145 bans
Puck
57 picks · 154 bans
Earth Spirit
54 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
48 picks · 92 bans
Phoenix
43 picks · 54 bans
Rubick
43 picks · 21 bans
Undying
43 picks · 64 bans
Monkey King
41 picks · 90 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:35
Hokori 46%Incubus Club 54%
The model gave 54% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 46:03.
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Hokori 46%Incubus Club 54%
The model gave 54% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 36:41.
Game 3prediction correct33:21
Hokori 46%Incubus Club 54%
The model gave 54% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 41:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 54%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3