Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 2 games
Elder Titan
Nuages · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Luna
Benny · 1 game
Mirana
Jupiter · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
Jupiter · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
443 picks · 970 bans
Void Spirit
423 picks · 587 bans
Death Prophet
367 picks · 683 bans
Mars
347 picks · 599 bans
Earth Spirit
317 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 179 bans
Grimstroke
271 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
269 picks · 388 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Hokori 48%Infinity Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:02.
Game 2prediction correct42:29
Hokori 48%Infinity Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 40:20.
Game 3prediction correct37:24
Hokori 48%Infinity Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 37:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 52%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3