Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
NoPing VPN
Earth Spirit
Michael · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mariano · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Matthew · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Mariano · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
420 picks · 582 bans
Death Prophet
364 picks · 703 bans
Mars
348 picks · 603 bans
Earth Spirit
315 picks · 308 bans
Grimstroke
298 picks · 262 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 188 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 63%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect