PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Perro Negrowin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
445 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 470 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
349 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Perro Negro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hokori 69%Perro Negro 31%
The model gave 69% on Hokori — the game was taken by Perro Negro.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 69%
Series resultPerro Negro 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1