Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 971 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
345 picks · 711 bans
Mars
337 picks · 559 bans
Grimstroke
330 picks · 334 bans
Lion
302 picks · 164 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
274 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:18
Hokori 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:04.
Game 2prediction missed37:14
Hokori 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 40:49.
Game 3prediction missed35:46
Hokori 55%SG e-sports 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 53:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 55%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3