ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tempestwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 452 bans
Puck
422 picks · 906 bans
Mars
369 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Dawnbreaker
327 picks · 378 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Hokori 65%Tempest 35%
The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by Tempest in 36:55.
Game 2prediction missed50:41
Hokori 65%Tempest 35%
The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by Tempest in 1:00:03.
Game 3prediction missed28:8
Hokori 65%Tempest 35%
The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by Tempest in 29:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 65%
Series resultTempest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3