The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wolf Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 568 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1027 bans
Dawnbreaker
479 picks · 630 bans
Marci
441 picks · 786 bans
Winter Wyvern
373 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 381 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Hokori 67%Wolf Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 27:09.
Game 2prediction missed33:15
Hokori 67%Wolf Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 29:48.
Game 3prediction missed30:42
Hokori 67%Wolf Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Hokori — the game was taken by Wolf Team in 41:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 67%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3