DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionHMHoly Molywin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Timebombloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Moly
No games played over 6 months.
Timebomb
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 712 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 868 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Holy Moly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Holy Moly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Holy Moly 57%Timebomb 43%
The model gave 57% on Holy Moly — the game was taken by Holy Moly.
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Moly · 57%
Series resultHoly Moly 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1