ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHDHombre de Negrowin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FCFlow Crewloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hombre de Negro
No games played over 6 months.
Flow Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
465 picks · 377 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 539 bans
Batrider
381 picks · 484 bans
Lion
372 picks · 199 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 598 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 406 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hombre de Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Flow Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:40
Hombre de Negro 43%Flow Crew 57%
The model gave 57% on Flow Crew — the game was taken by Hombre de Negro in 45:06.
Game 2prediction missed52:33
Hombre de Negro 43%Flow Crew 57%
The model gave 57% on Flow Crew — the game was taken by Hombre de Negro in 52:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlow Crew · 57%
Series resultHombre de Negro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2